Pertinent Perils

It's That Time of Year

As disasters recede into memory, complacency creeps in and we become less vigilant in preparing for the storm season. Even worse, mega-disasters competing for our attention may distract us from more imminent threats. With the round-the-clock media attention on the largest oil spill in U.S. history, residents of the Gulf Coast may be desensitized to the beginning of the 2010 hurricane season. This would be risky at any time, but particularly when the forecast calls for an unusually severe Atlantic storm season. This indifference alarms the Florida Division of Emergency Management, which retained Florida State University geography professor Jay Baker to conduct a study of disaster preparedness. Professor Baker found that nearly two-thirds of residents of hurricane evacuation zones dismissed the threat levels of wind and water damage. Half of the residents of the hurricane risk zone do not have an evacuation plan, an increase from prior years. It was just a few short years ago, in the 2004 – 2005 period, that Florida endured a destructive hurricane season in which it was slammed by storm after storm; in particular, Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma. But it isn’t just Floridians who dismiss the threat of the 2010 storm season. A Maxon-Dixon multi-state poll of residents in the southeastern coastal states found that most residents are unaware of their vulnerability. I am particularly concerned about a potentially severe storm season during a period of record unemployment. Imagine that you live in one of the vulnerable states. You would reasonably have to budget at least $1,000 for an evacuation fund, inclusive of transportation, meal and hotel costs, perhaps slightly less if you have out-of-area friends and relatives with whom you could stay. How many people who are collecting or have exhausted their unemployment benefits are equipped to evacuate? If you live in the hurricane zone, look after your employees and their families by briefing them on appropriate safety precautions during the storm season, including an evacuation plan.

On the Horizon

Hurricane forecasters with Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project forecast an above-average Atlantic storm season for 2010. They anticipate 11 to 16 named storms, of which 6 to 8 to become hurricanes, with 3 to 5 to strengthen to major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4 and 5 in severity) reaching sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more. The hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, with peak exposures in the months of August and September. The Colorado State University team assigns a two-thirds probability of at least one major hurricane to make landfall, striking the U.S. coastline in 2010. For the U.S. East Coast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 40%.  The team derives its forecasts from meteorological data and revises it as conditions warrant. Neverthless, the message for small businesses is clear: while we thankfully escaped a major storm in the U.S. this year, we cannot become complacent.