Archive for December, 2009

Scotland Begins Flood Recovery Effort

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

Severe floods struck parts of Scotland in September and again in late November and the recovery will take some time. With the affected area only recently declared safe for return, clean-up efforts have just begun. The Association of British Insurers estimates the damage to exceed £100 million. Businesses and homeowners fear that premium increases for the losses or higher deductibles will be passed on to them or that their coverage could be dropped entirely. The encouraging news is that insurers have agreed to continue to underwrite flood cover in areas where flood defenses exist or are planned for construction within the next five years. But uncertainty exists around “resilient repair” which goes beyond restoring the property to its pre-flood status and enhances its ability to withstand future flooding. Resilient repair efforts could include moving electrical circuits to higher levels or replacing carpets with hardwood flooring. The brokers’ trade association endorses resilient repair, but insurers reimburse policyholders’ investment in resilient repair by different means or not at all. It is best to seek guidance from the insurance carrier before incurring the expense. The National Flood Forum provides helpful information on flood property defenses.

I spoke with Michael Duncan of the Federation of Small Businesses, which is offering a £500,000 disaster recovery fund to finance the recovery of its members. Members in affected communities (Elgin, Aboyne, Oldmeldrium, Canoustie and Pitlochry) are eligible to apply for interest-free loans of up to £5,000 for businesses to finance their recovery and continuity efforts. The FSB has asked for forbearance for small businesses to meet their obligations under more flexible terms during this difficult time. If you wish to contribute to the UK Red Cross, here is the link.

Blindspots Explained

Sunday, December 13th, 2009
Difficult to Manage

Difficult to Manage

I had occasion to hear the very thoughtful words of Kenneth Knight, the National Intelligence Officer for Warning. He oversees teams of analysts to brief the President to “avoid surprises”. He spoke about the challenge of overcoming cognitive bias, or seeing the world through the filter through which you have become accustomed. This is hard for anyone, but particularly for intelligence officers, to go against their own analytic frameworks that have served them well in the past. To try to compensate for this risk, that the view of the intelligence agencies leaves the country vulnerable to their own blindspots, he challenges his assumptions, but always know that he is working against the tyranny of time.

This insight is applicable to small businesses as well. I had the experience of working in New Orleans post-Katrina where hurricane recovery was understandably the top concern. But the more immediate threat to one small business served by the local Small Business Development Center was a fire. The proprietor had intended to back up his data in advance of June 1, the start of the new hurricane season, but time was not on his side. His facility burned to the ground before he could prepare for the hurricanes. Another example was shared with me by the SBDC in New Orleans of a commercial shrimp facility that had to discard $500,000 worth of their catch due to spoilage when a power outage disrupted their electrical supply. Even in the Gulf Coast, a fire or a power outage is the more statistically significant risk than a hurricane. Similarly for California, a seismically active area where, thankfully, there has not been a major earthquake. But every year, southern California experiences an outbreak of fires. Sometime we have to change our frame of reference to better perceive the more immediate threat – a challenge for small business owners and national intelligence authorities alike.

The Small Business Massacre

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009
Not Good News

Not Good News

David Goldman appeared on Larry Kudlow’s CNBC program to discuss the “massacre of small business”. Policymakers have belabored the point that small businesses have led job creation in all post-war economic recoveries. That is not the case now as job losses at small businesses exceed those of large ones. Goldman pointed out that the household survey, based on telephone interviews with a large sample of randomly chosen households, shows that 558,000 Americans lost their jobs in October, but large businesses reported a decline of only 190,000 jobs. So small businesses are disproportionately affected by the economic downturn, doubtless due to the contraction in commercial credit. Business lending is down 13% year on year and according to the recent report of the Federal Reserve Bank, most banks continue to “tighten lending standards”.  Small businesses are choked of credit as all lines, including home equity and credit cards, are tightened. Without access to capital, small businesses fail. Indeed, Moody’s reported that the global speculative default rate is at 12%, an all-time high since the Depression. The capital access disaster is exceeds all natural disasters in severity, owing to bad economic policy.

Fire Hazards

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009
Thankfully, It Wasn't Worse

Thankfully, It Wasn't Worse

In Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), I wrote about fire safety, including the importance of grounded electrical connections, maintaining a no-smoking policy at work and not leaving cooking appliances unattended, for example. Careful observation of safety procedures can significantly reduce your risk of fire at the workplace. Unfortunately, Credit Suisse learned this lesson the hard way when an employee left a space heater plugged in and on over the Thanksgiving holiday. The attached photograph shows the physical damage that resulted when an electrical fire started from the space heater. Thankfully, no one was hurt. Nevertheless, this is an important lesson in fire safety. Many small businesses become distracted by thinking of catastrophic risks specific to their geographic locale (hurricanes in the Gulf Coast states, earthquakes in California, etc.), but in fact, it is the everyday disasters, such as fire, that pose the greatest threat. Please take this opportunity to review your fire safety procedures to ensure that they are up to date and employees are compliant with them.

The Best Account of the Financial Crisis

Sunday, December 6th, 2009
International Headlines

International Headlines

I urge you to read “The Great Trade Collapse”, a publication of VOX EU. It is the best account of the financial crisis and the concomitant trade collapse. This is critical to small businesses, as we form the global supply chain. I also recomment that you check out the crisis_timeline for the U.S. and the irctimelinepublic for the rest of the world. If you click on individual events, the links open up to a direct account of what transpired from the host country’s perspective. What is absolutely astonishing in reading this dispassionate account is the careful recitation of events which lead you to the conclusion that our policymakers were blundering their way through this crisis, which actions had devastating consequences not only for the domestic small business sector, but for global trade and, in particular, the most vulnerable of the developing world, whose aspirations were dealt a setback by events beyond their control in Washington and in Wall Street.

Data Backup Is Not The Same As Disaster Recovery

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

National Underwriter conducted a teleconference to discuss small business disaster preparedness and, surprise – the panelists who spoke reported that small businesses are not prepared to work through disruptions.  David Paulison, former executive director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, stated “small businesses that don’t have a plan in place generally don’t survive after a disaster, whether it’s a flood or a tornado. We see that anywhere from 40-60%  of those that are hit like that simply don’t come back to business.” Also participating in the teleconference was Bob Boyd, chief executive officer of Agility Recovery Solutions, who shared the findings of a survey of more than 700 business owners his company had conducted with Hughes Marketing Group.  According to that survey, over the past two years, more than half of businesses experience interruptions that affected productivity.  The survey also reported that:

  • 90% of smaller companies (<100 employees) surveyed spend less than one day per month maintaining their continuity plans;
  • 22% spend no time maintaining their plans; and
  • 20% of larger companies (>100 employees) spend more than 10 days per month on their continuity plans.

Mr. Boyd pointed out that a data backup plan is not a disaster recovery plan. “The best data in the world are useless if you cannot make use of it.” Indeed, in Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), I shared the example of a business based in the World Trade Center that had backed up its data. Sadly, the only employees who knew how to recover the data and work with it perished on 9-11. It bears repeating: you have invested too much in your business to leave it unprotected.

Small Business Financing Forum

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009
Small Business Financing Forum

Small Business Financing Forum

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair and U.S. Small Business Administration head Karen Mills co-chaired the Small Business Financing Forum in which the usual sound bites were offered about the importance of small business to the U.S. economy: the “engines of job growth”, support the tax base, lead the country out of recession, etc. etc.  Geithner stated that small businesses are more vulnerable to banking crises, as 90% of them obtain their credit from banks as compared with 30% of large corporations. As small businesses have fewer capital resources to work through a credit drought, they paid dearly for the errors of the banking sector and the government. Geithner outlined the Obama Administration’s six-step plan for help small businesses access credit:

  1. Provide direct support through the Recovery Act to promote government loans guaranteed through the SBA. I have already blogged about why this approach won’t work.
  2. Support small business lenders by providing low-cost capital to community development financing institutions.
  3. Repair securitization markets by promoting the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility program to lower the interest costs on asset-backed loans.
  4. Provide guidance to lenders. This appears a polite euphemism for the process by which regulators browbeat the banks they supervise. It hasn’t worked yet.
  5. Support government programs by lending agencies like the U.S. Export-Import Bank. Unfortunately, such programs are welfare for large corporations that can secure credit and insurance through the private sector.
  6. Exert pressure on banks to use federal assistance programs. The Administration apparently believes that the top 19 banks that received TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) aid should participate in SBA lending programs. Unfortunately, SBA lending programs don’t meet the credit needs of most small businesses. The increased guarantees on the loans simply mean that the taxpayers will bear more losses for inexperienced banks to move up the small business credit learning curve. This is a terrible idea.

To watch the video of the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s presentation, click here.