Imbalance Between Supply and Demand

July 10th, 2009
All Dressed Up and Nowhere to Go

All Dressed Up and Nowhere to Go

Banks claim to be lending, but small businesses claim it is harder than ever to get loans. Which side is right? Both! Reports of tightening access to credit are consistent. In a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business, 14% of small businesses across the U.S. reported that loans were difficult to obtain in April relative to March. This is the highest percentage since the 1980 – 82 recession. At the same time, two-thirds of the small businesses surveyed also reported that the interest rates on their credit card accounts had increased. On the other side, the monthly reports collected by the Federal Reserve Bank reveal that 60% of bank loan officers report that their loan volumes have declined for insufficient demand.

Each side has responded to the financial crisis with caution. Banks have raised lending standards, such that small businesses that used to be able to access loans with FICO scores of 650 now find that the hurdle is 720. At the same time, small businesses are reluctant to assume additional debt, given the uncertainties in the current economic environment. Apparently banks and small businesses agree on one thing: keep as much cash on the balance sheet as possible at this time.

Beware of Scareware

July 9th, 2009
Attention-Grabbing

Attention-Grabbing

Scareware consists of deceptive advertisements that pop up on websites where criminals have purchased such ads. The pop-up announces that your computer is infected and asks you to click on a box to run a free scan of your computer. If you accept the offer, the scan claims to find a viral infection on your computer. It then helpfully offers you the chance to buy security software to clean this virus. When you accept the offer, the software takes you to an online shopping cart to collect your credit card information. If you back out of the offer at this time, the system will badger you with endless fake scans. Scareware is distributed by a number of means: websites, online social networking sites, Twitter and others, so you must always be vigilant.

Should you encounter what appears to be a Scareware warning box, press Ctrl-Alt-Del to access Task Manager, click to applications, scroll to the dialogue box, and click “end task.” This will force the warning box to close. If you don’t stop at this point, it will be very difficult to stop the attack. You can try running Microsoft’s Malicious Software Removal Tool, or cleanup tools from the antivirus software you use.

Proposed Financial Sector Reform

July 9th, 2009
Small Business and Big Government

Small Business and Big Government

According to the New York Times, President Obama sought a wide range of views on finance rules, consulting with, among others, top executives from Goldman Sachs, Metlife, Allstate, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Travelers and Prudential. It does not appear as though any representatives from small businesses were given the opportunity to have input, although the Administration has consistently acknowledged that we account for over one-half of the economy and all net job growth. The Administration released an 85-page white paper, outlining its proposals to reform financial market regulation. Various proposals were put forward for an expanded role of the Federal Reserve Bank, new bank loan loss reserve accounting, the elimination of the Office of Thrift Supervision and other matters. But what was missing was a consideration of the ultimate goals of regulation: to ensure the safety and soundness of our financial system while maintaining access to a multilayered system. The access part is missing from the Administration’s proposal, save for a cursory mention of the requirements of the Community Reinvestment Act.

South Africa’s Centre for Financial Inclusion described the phenomenon of regulatory drift: first, markets grow and become more sophisticated and complex. When market failure occurs, regulators impose costs and barriers that foreclose market entry for the less advantaged. This result occurs in part because of the regulators’ emphasis on stability over access. This was the unintended result of anti-money-laundering and anti-terrorist financing regulations, which had the consequence of slowing remittances upon which many poor people in the developing world depend.  The emphasis of stability over access also contributed to choking the flow of credit to smaller businesses in the U.S.  The omission of the financial access issues of smaller businesses is all the more significant given that the Administration has publicly identified this issue as a priority.

Commingling Business and Personal Credit

July 9th, 2009
Everything is Reported

Note: Everything is Reported

Business Week reports that historically, small business debt had not been reported to consumer credit bureaus, but now that is changing. Although most small business owners have to personally guarantee their business debt, particularly SBA loans, business loans did not affect personal credit unless your account was in arrears. Now the total amount of your business indebtedness may lower your personal credit score, even if you have been scrupulous in keeping up with your payments. This can lower the availability of personal credit that you can access as well as raise the cost of that credit. It is unclear what lenders expect to gain by this reporting. Net delinquencies and charge-offs are rising, so perhaps they wish to signal to small business owners that there are consequences to defaulting. But with personal pledges, guarantees and other assets on the line collateralizing the business borrowing, we already know that. What concerns me, which is why I never completed the SBA loan application process, is that providing personal guarantees exposes liability risk and places other assets, unrelated to the business, in play. With frivolous litigation the norm in the United States, I want to exercise care to ensure that I preserve all of the protection of limited liability by incorporating. I would not wish to forfeit any of those protections to access financing. I note that the large automakers and banks that secured government bailouts did not do so by exposing the personal assets of their executive management. Although, perhaps if they had, you wouldn’t see 38 to 1 leverage ratios and poor management decisions at certain of these companies!

Small Business Bankruptcy Filings Surge

July 9th, 2009
It Trickles Down

It Trickles Down

According to Equifax, the rate of bankruptcy filings among small businesses is skyrocketing; on average, 350 new filings per day, an increase of 52% as compared with the previous year. Part of the problem is the trickle down effect, as when large corporations such as General Motors file for bankruptcy, they cancel contracts and discharge debts they owe to their suppliers. The 2005 revisions to bankruptcy laws are much tougher on small businesses than on larger corporations, which are often the genesis of the small business’ financial difficulties! Even worse, in today’s tough economy, even those corporations that are going concerns are often in arrears in paying their suppliers. According to the Equifax bankruptcy study, the largest run-up in bankruptcy filings is driven by the transportation industry, which includes the troubled automobile and airlines businesses. The transportation industry is followed by the construction, manufacturing and retail industries. The stress can be seen in local trends, with small business bankruptcy filings increasing the most in Los Angeles and Chicago. Local unemployment is a major contributor to small business bankruptcies. Lack of access to credit appears to be accelerating the trend, as small businesses can no longer borrow working capital until times improve. Small businesses that supply discretionary services, such as restaurants, child-care facilities and entertainment, are at particular risk as consumers cut back such expenses in a recession. Rising prices, particularly in core commodities, such as gas and food, are contributing to the problem. And fewer people are starting new small businesses to replace the failed ones. For small businesses that see no way forward, a Chapter 7 bankruptcy allows for an orderly liquidation and discharge of debt.  If it is possible to reorganize the business or sell it as a going concern, Chapter 11 may be the better option.  These are tough times, indeed.

California Budget Crisis Update

July 8th, 2009

Further to an earlier blog posting on the topic of California’s decision to pay certain of its contractors in scrip, the State Legislature is considering a bill that would require the State to accept its own paper as payment for taxes, fees and other obligation due. After all, it is only fair that California accept its own currency. Irrespective of what happens with this bill, small business owners should use the IOUs as payments towards California state taxes, city taxes, fees, and other government obligations. If I were a California small business owner, I would even use the IOUs to pay the IRS. After all, the federal government is in a better position to collect from California than I am. This should dampen the pain for the businesses that are put in a terrible cash flow position with this move. Check cashing companies have indicated that they will accept the IOUs, but they charge onerous fees. Better to redeem the notes pack to the state to retire other obligations and conserve cash.

Paperback Edition on Its Way

July 8th, 2009

Paperback EditionLater this month, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. will publish the paperback version of the second edition of Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses. The list price will be $24.95, but most major retailers typically discount 30% off of list prices, bringing the price of the book down to the $16 – $17 range. This will make the book more affordable to a broader audience, so I am very pleased about that. I also love the new cover; the image of falling dominoes originally appeared on this site, on the first link to the home page. I look forward to meeting as many readers as possible when the new book comes out and am preparing to update my calendar and this site for that happy event.

This paperback version represents the second edition, which is newly updated with 40% new content from when the book was originally published. At that time, we were early in our own disaster recovery process and still held out the hope that promises made by the federal, state and city governments would materialize. Having now worked through the complete recovery process, and seeing how those “aid” programs worked out, I can share that information with small business owners across the country. I think that this is particularly important as you have very little margin for error in recovering from a disaster. We have seen the same themes, time and time again, from what happened to small businesses in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992 to, more recently, what happened to small businesses in the aftermath of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike and the Iowa floods. There should be more national learning taking place, and I think that this might be a unique contribution to help other small businesses that find themselves in this difficult position. It can be comforting to know that you are not alone, that others have worked through this process and what worked and what failed.

Doing Well by Doing Good, Part 10 of an Occasional Series

July 8th, 2009
Small and Mighty

Small and Mighty

I took this photograph of the Grand Canyon when vacationing in Arizona years ago. It inspires awe to think how the tiny Colorado River carved out this magnificent canyon over thousands of years. It is similar to the entrepreneurial process; a little effort applied consistently over time can yield unimaginable results. If you are thinking of small business as your path to independence, consider the publicity and marketing benefits of small business competitions. My other business, Childs Capital LLC, benefited from being named the 2008 winner of the International Woman’s Entrepreneurship Challenge of the Chambers of Commerce, the 2007 Woman Business Owner of the Year of the National Association of Women Business Owners, the 2006 Optimist Award of the Mirassou Wineries, a 2006 Finalist of the Small Business Advocate of the Year of the National Small Business Association, the 2005 Entrepreneurial Rising Star Award of the Business and Professional Women’s Association, the 2003 Real People, Real Success Award of the U.S. Postal Service and the 2002 Signature Award of the New York City Group of the National Association of Women Business Owners.  This recognition can help your business build its profile and expand sales and it costs nothing to accomplish.

Doing Well by Doing Good, Part 9 of an Occasional Series

July 8th, 2009
School in Guinea

School in Guinea

As this economy prompts more and more people to look at bootstrapping their way to small business independence, I thought it helpful to share my own experience. One of the issues that is quickly surfaced in the entrepreneurial process is the need for more education. As someone else’s employee, your responsibilities are likely narrowly defined. Large corporations have functional departments to deal with every need, whether it be the company website or the marketing department. As a small business owner, you have to become a Jill-of-all-trades and manage everything. And your prior corporate experience has left you unequipped to do it! So you need to learn and need to learn fast. With 50% of small businesses failing in the first year of operations, you have little margin for error. But how do you finance this education when resources are scarce? That is where entrepreneurial creativity comes in. In an earlier blog posting, I described how I took Saturday classes for eighteen months to become proficient in website design. That was part of my education. I took a week-long executive education program at the Harvard Business School, Strategic Finance for Smaller Businesses, paid for by a grant from the Families of Freedom Foundation.  The Foundation provided scholarship assistance to those in the immediate impact zone of the World Trade Center on 9-11-01 for which I qualified.

Thereafter, I participated in Owner President Management, a program of the Harvard Business School for founders of fast-growing entrepreneurial enterprises. OPM, as it is known, met three weeks a year for three years on the HBS campus and was truly a tranformational experience. A Professional Development Grant of the American Association of University Women covered part of the cost. I also participated in “Strategic Thinking and Management for Competitive Advantage” at the Wharton School of Business with my tuition and all expenses paid as the winner of the (ft-summer-school-2003) “summer school” competition of the Financial Times newspaper. The image attached to this posting, by the way, is a sign at a school crossing, showing a boy and a girl holdng hands to safely cross the street. I took this photograph in Guinea, a French-speaking country in Sub-Saharan Africa when I was working on a project there.  “École” is the French word for school. African parents make tremendous sacrifices to send their children to school, where school fees can be quite onerous for the poor. They do so because they want better futures for their children. This image always inspires me.

SBA Modifies 504 Loan Program

July 7th, 2009
Driving Nowhere

Driving Nowhere

Last week, the Small Business Administration permanently changed its 504 loan program so that businesses can refinance to expand or buy equipment. In the past, the 504 program provided new loans to buy real estate, upgrade machinery and make other capital improvements. Now the program provides for refinancing of any fixed-asset loan as long as the amount is 50% or less than the total cost of expansion. The redesign is intended to help small businesses restructure their debt under better terms to improve their cash flow positions. However, the small business must also create or retain a job for every $65,000 guaranteed by the SBA, an increase from the previous requirement of $50,000. Unfortunately, this modification will not help those of us whose small businesses were prudent and refrained from taking on debt. This is only helpful for those who need to refinance. Moreover, it is a dicey proposition for any small business to take on additional debt, or guarantee employment at this time, given the uncertainty about the economy. The SBA expects to announce next week a new loan program to assist car dealers in purchasing inventory. It just seems that the SBA is out of synch with what is going on in the economy at the moment. For service businesses, that constitute the bulk of employment, we don’t typically have major capital investments in equipment, but we certainly have working capital and cash flow pressures. They don’t seem to have anything for us.