Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

Self-Employment Becomes the Only Option for Many

Sunday, September 13th, 2009
Evaluating the Options

Evaluating the Options

With 6.9 million jobs eliminated this year, many unemployed workers are trying to reverse their fortunes by starting their own businesses, either as solo entrepreneurs or by purchasing a franchise. According to the quarterly Job Market Index of outplacement company Challenger Gray & Christmas, 8.7% of the unemployed who found work in the second quarter of this year did so by starting their own businesses, up from 6.4% in the first quarter. But the figures commingle businesses with paid employees with self-employed people who incorporate, the latter representing 75% of all small businesses. Unfortunately, the odds are not on their side; according to the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy, 50% of new businesses will fail in the first five years. That is in normal times, and we are right now in a difficult recession. The National Small Business Association reports that 60% of small businesses reported declining revenues over the past 12 months, the first time a majority of respondents cited declining revenues since the polling question was first posed in 1993. At the same time, business bankruptcies have nearly doubled over the past two years.  Self-employment and entrepreneurship involve significant risks and at least some modest investment. As such, they are not viable alternatives to lack of opportunities in the formal job market.

Opportunity Arises

Saturday, June 6th, 2009
A Few Clouds on the Horizon, But Blue Skies, Too

A Few Clouds on the Horizon, But Blue Skies, Too

Much of the business media focus on the usual platitudes around managing in a recession: now is a good time to start a new business because inputs are less expensive, many great businesses were started in economic downturns, etc.  I am not sure I agree with that thinking; in a booming economy, you can keep your cash flow stable with regular employment while preparing to launch your business. In the current environment, you have fewer opportunities to diversify your risk.  And you are trying to sell new products and services at a time when everyone else is cutting back. I don’t mean to be negative. I am an optimist, but those who have never before launched small businesses seriously underestimate the risk and stress involved. You need to temper your optimism with a realistic plan to manage through tough times. But I do see two very attractive opportunities that have been overlooked.

The first concerns the unmet needs here at home. I was stunned to learn that the U.S. exports only 10% of its Gross Domestic Product. China exports 10% of its GDP to the U.S. alone, a single export market. The U.S., alone among world economies, can have a home-grown recovery. In recent years too much of our labor force has been focused on what I call “spam” products: mass distribution to see what sticks with negative value-added. Like the mortgage brokers qualifying borrowers for loans that they could not reasonably expect to service, it was all phoniness. But we have some very real social needs and there are opportunities for wealth creation and social enterprise for those who can innovate to meet those needs. That is what I hope to do with Prepared Small Business. The second opportunity concerns the challenges of working in a credit-constrained world. We make better decisions in times of scarcity. In times of abundance, every idiotic idea gets funded. But when we have to make tough capital allocation decisions, we think more carefully about our commitments. This is what separates the passionate entrepreneurs from the dilettantes and what, I believe, will help us to develop solutions to our most pressing needs – not cheap inputs in an economic downturn, but higher value-added solutions.

Business Owners Policies and the Recession

Friday, June 5th, 2009
Not the Business to Be In Right Now

Not the Business to Be In Right Now

MarketStance, a research firm that provides analytics to the insurance industry, offered an unusual perspective on the significance of the recession for smaller businesses. They report that “the depth and duration of the current recession, when combined with the financial crisis and current soft market conditions, represents a perfect storm of unique proportions for the commercial lines industry.” In an earlier blog posting, I explained how the dual threats of poor underwriting results (due to high catastrophic insured losses in 2008) and poor investment performance signaled rising rates for insurance. Cash flow underwriting, a strategy for profitability in which returns on the investment portfolio compensate for underwriting losses, no longer works in this market.  Insurers have the choice between hunkering down and waiting for the cycle to turn or proactively managing their books of business to try to reposition for profitability. MarketStance believes that $600 million of business owner policy premiums will be lost through year-end 2010 as a consequence of the recession. These losses will result from both business failures and declines of surviving businesses in recession-sensitive segments of the small business sector, such as the construction industry. But over the same time frame, four times as much new premium potential will emerge from new business formation and growth, more than offsetting the losses due to the recession. The white paper published on MarketStance’s website, presenting an analysis of the business owners policy market, is really about the possibilities of entrepreneurship and creative destruction.

Their research found that 60% of the small business market, roughly $14 billion in written premiums, is experiencing significant stress due to the recession. Not surprisingly, this varies significantly by region, with states such as Arizona and Michigan faring worse than average. But states such as Nevada and Florida are doing much better than average, notwithstanding their experiences with the construction boom and subprime mortgage crisis. Other states, such as Texas, Alabama, North Carolina and Maryland, have more broadly diversified economies, with most of their small businesses working in either growth areas or at least areas that are not tied to the economic cycle, such as tourism. For policymakers, this report offers an instructive lesson on the benefits of economic diversification. For small business owners, it is a lesson on the importance of choosing a suitable business niche. But recession-sensitive or not, all small businesses must prepare for what will likely be a challenging insurance renewal season.

Protect Your Workers, But Manage Your Costs

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009
Protect Your Workers, But Manage Your Costs

Protect Your Workers, But Manage Your Costs

In this economy, small businesses are under pressure to cut expenses. One area to consider is workers’ compensation insurance, which is typically a mandatory coverage for businesses, depending on your state’s requirements. Should a disaster cause injury to an employee on the job, or while performing work duties when disaster strikes, these components of your insurance program will be very important to the recovery of your employee and your business.  Workers’ compensation insurance protects employees against the risk of sustaining a job-related injury. It covers medical expenses, disability income benefits, and death benefits to dependents of an employee whose death is job related. Premiums are assessed according to payroll and depend on the industry classification of your business. An advertising firm would pay lower workers’ compensation premiums than a construction company, reflecting the relative risks of injury to employees of those two businesses.  That is why it is important that you classify employees accurately for their job descriptions and wages. If you are adding new employees to your payroll, be certain to update your workers’ compensation coverage to avoid incurring an additional year-end charge.

Obviously, the risk of incurring workers’ compensation-related claims increases with the occurrence of a disaster: employees may incur injuries themselves while evacuating the business premises, stress-related injuries and depression and other types of disorders may occur as a result.  Be certain that your workers’ compensation coverage is up-to-date. Similarly, employees injured in disasters while on the job may require disability benefits.  Certain states mandate coverage for short-term disability for all employees.  Check the Web site of your state’s insurance commissioner or consult with your insurance broker to learn the requirements of your state.

I have three suggestions that may help to reduce your workers’ compensation premiums. First, ask your insurance company about merit-rating credits.  In most states, small businesses that have favorable claims experiences may be entitled to credits toward their premiums.  Second, consider adding a deductible to your workers’ compensation policy.  Workers’ compensation typically covers from the first dollar of losses, but most states allow deductibles that will reduce your costs. Finally, consider foregoing coverage for yourself or for other officers or directors of the company.  Many states let small business owners and certain officers and directors opt out of their workers’ compensation policy.  This would lower costs, but would leave you without workers’ compensation benefits should you be injured on the job.  This may make sense if you have medical insurance to pay for medical expenses incurred in an on-the-job injury or other means of financial support, such as a disability income policy, if you or any of your directors and officers were medically unable to work.

By the way, if you are wondering about the image I posted to this blog, it is a photograph of an office building in Brussels illuminated in the evening. It is the headquarters for a labor union organization, which I thought a fitting image for the topic of workers’ compensation insurance.

Sign of the Times

Saturday, April 18th, 2009
Lots of Space Here

Lots of Space Here

Yesterday, I participated in a telephone interview with Joyce Rosenberg, the small business writer of the Associated Press for an article she was researching on small business disaster preparedness. To see the article, which was published today, click here.

In addition to covering the small business beat, Joyce also writes about banking and finance issues for the Associated Press. As we are both based in the New York City area, our conversation took a turn around the topic of the banking crisis and its implications for our local economy. I took this photograph of an empty subway car (the #5 from the Wall Street station!), a sure sign of the times. It wasn’t that long ago when we worried about the risk of injury to passengers on overcrowded subway platforms. For the local small businesses that serve banking clients, such as restaurants, accounting firms, law firms, messenger services and copy and printing businesses, the ripple effects have been devastating. Unfortunately, business interruption insurance only obtains when there is a triggering physical event, not an economic downturn.  In my former neighborhood (where residents choose to live largely because of its proximity to Wall Street), there is an entire apartment building in foreclosure. Tenants who have lost their jobs are seeking to terminate their leases without penalties.

Speaking from experience, one of the most challenging issues in disaster recovery is for the small business to make a hard-headed assessment about whether cash reserves can sustain the business until revenues return to pre-disaster levels. This is not an easy assessment to make as small business people are optimistic by nature. In discussions with my peers in the Lower Manhattan small business community today, we arrived at a consensus view that the economy will recover, but Lower Manhattan and Wall Street will likely never again return to the wealth-generating capacity of the past. It is difficult to be a global financial capital within a debtor nation. For the local small businesses that depend on banking clients, it is time to make some tough decisions.

Role Reversal

Friday, March 20th, 2009
Women Step Up

Women Step Up

In Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), I wrote that “I am going to make a politically incorrect statement. Be attentive to the emotional needs of the men in your life. I was impressed by the men in my life and how many of them suffered silently and perhaps put themselves at greater risk of illness and injury…..sometimes we forget the difficult burden of masculine conduct, so listen carefully and be particularly attentive to the men in your life who may have needs that they are too embarrassed to admit.”

The examples I supplied related to my personal experience of 9-11 as the owner of a small business in Lower Manhattan. Now we are facing an economic disaster, a day of reckoning for a quarter century or more of fiscal mismanagement and the financial consequences are even more ruinous. The cost of this has fallen dispropotionately on men. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 82% of the 2.5 million jobs lost in the U.S. since November were held by men. In an article published in USA Today, titled “Women Step Up as Men Lose Jobs”, a number of interesting family stories are presented with a common theme: the role reversal imposes some stress, but more so for men as for women as they navigate the unfamiliar.

We all become comfortable with our daily routines as we go on “auto-pilot”. It is more efficient. But any disaster disrupts our familiar routine and that alone imposes additional stress. One of the key lessons that I learned from my own disaster recovery experience is that if you can identify the stressors, you can better manage them. So here is another one of which to be aware.