Archive for October, 2008

Two Months Remain in the 2008 Hurricane Season

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008
Still at risk in October

Still at risk in October

There are two months remaining in the 2008 hurricane season and researchers at Colorado State University expect twice the hurricane activity during the month of October 2008 relative to past years. The reason for the forecast of exceptional activity is low sea-level pressures and warm sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, a bad combination for severe storms.

By the way, the captioned photograph is one I had taken at a small business conference in Florida. I had just given a talk on hurricane preparedness and decided to unwind a bit by walking along the promenade in the unusually mild weather. But I could have used a photograph of a colder climate, as Canada was recently pummeled by Hurricane Kyle. In the second edition of Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, 2008), I cited the evacuation of Newfoundland when Hurricane Juan moved up the Atlantic Coast. Kyle caused problems for Nova Scotia and thereafter I was asked to contribute a bylined article to the Daily Business Buzz of the Nova Scotia Business Journal.  The Toronto Globe and Mail also advised its readers of our book. So expect some nail-biting from Canada to Florida during the month of October as meteorologists monitor Atlantic storm activity.

Residents Affected by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike to Benefit from FEMA Housing Assistance

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008
FEMA and HUD promise housing assistance

FEMA and HUD promise housing assistance

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has joined with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to announce a housing assistance program for residents affected by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. For more information about this program, click here to see the FEMA press release. The program appears to have much in common with FEMA’s Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program that was in effect during the 9/11 disaster, although it differs in some key respects to the assistance offered in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Here are two tips from the experience of 9/11:

1. As I recommended in Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), always use a Certificate of Mailing for any correspondence with your insurance company or any relief agency. This is different from sending a letter via registered or certified mail in which the recipient must sign to acknowledge receipt of the letter or package. With a Certificate of Mailing, the recipient’s signature is unnecessary; it is the post office that provides certification of the date and time of the mailing. Why is this distinction important? Consider what happened in the aftermath of 9/11 to Lower Manhattan residents who were directed to mail their applications for the FEMA Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program to a designated post office box address for processing. Applications were not accepted through other channels. Weeks and months passed and residents wondered what had happened with their applications. As it turns out, FEMA had not paid the rent on its post office box. If the post office would have returned the undeliverable applications to the senders, the problem could have been detected earlier. But one error compounded another and the post office staff simply piled up the undeliverable applications in a back room. The Certificate of Mailing would have proved that the applicants met their deadlines irrespective of the problems on the recipient’s end, that is one of the reasons that I recommend its use. By the way, the book incorrectly states that the cost of the Certificate of Mailing is $0.60. It was $0.60 at the time I submitted the manuscript for the book, but it has since risen to $1.10, which is still a good value.

2. The information that FEMA and HUD have released indicates that benefits will be paid three months at a time. If they will process the benefits for this program as they did for the Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program, they will electronically deposit the funds in the recipient’s bank account. Given the economic difficulties and credit pressure, it is very likely that there are applicants in the Gulf Coast who may have judgments against them. In such a case, it would be better to set up a separate account for receipt of the electronic funds from which the rent or mortgage expense could be paid. An attorney with the 9/11 Project of the New York Legal Aid Society had informed me of an instance in which one of her clients had commingled his FEMA housing assistance money with other funds in his account and the FEMA money was garnished by a creditor. If you may be facing this risk, it is better not to take a chance. Use a separate account.

Moral Hazard in Disaster Relief Programs

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008
Wall Street

Wall Street

The current debate over the proposed legislation to authorize $700 billion for the U.S. Treasury to purchase non-performing mortgage assets raises a number of issues, including concerns about moral hazard risk. The draft legislation does not authorize the Secretary of the Treasury to oversee the recipient institutions from which the federal government would purchase these assets. Of course, banks could choose not to subject themselves to such oversight; they could simply refrain from participating in what is perceived as a bail out of Wall Street. But as the legislation stands right now, the Secretary of the Treasury would have no such authority, setting up a classic moral hazard risk. It is analogous to the federal government’s programs for disaster relief, which provide aid after the disaster has struck, but such aid is not contingent on land-use regulation or financed with risk-based premiums. As a result, construction in areas prone to major natural disasters has dramatically outpaced construction in safer areas. The management of risk is, in essence, the management of moral hazard and our federal government fails on that score.

At the same time, mega bank mergers (Citibank announced its acquisition of Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase has done the same for Washington Mutual and Bank of America is to be the new owner of Merrill Lynch) means that we have more banking institutions deemed too big to fail.  The insurance industry, too, has exposure to non-performing mortgage assets in their investment portfolios. However, with more than 3,000 institutions insuring property-casualty risk in the United States, the industry has a lower concentration of risk as compared with commercial and investment banks. Let’s hope that Congress proceeds more carefully with the legislation proposed by Treasury.