Two Months Remain in the 2008 Hurricane Season

October 1st, 2008
Still at risk in October

Still at risk in October

There are two months remaining in the 2008 hurricane season and researchers at Colorado State University expect twice the hurricane activity during the month of October 2008 relative to past years. The reason for the forecast of exceptional activity is low sea-level pressures and warm sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, a bad combination for severe storms.

By the way, the captioned photograph is one I had taken at a small business conference in Florida. I had just given a talk on hurricane preparedness and decided to unwind a bit by walking along the promenade in the unusually mild weather. But I could have used a photograph of a colder climate, as Canada was recently pummeled by Hurricane Kyle. In the second edition of Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, 2008), I cited the evacuation of Newfoundland when Hurricane Juan moved up the Atlantic Coast. Kyle caused problems for Nova Scotia and thereafter I was asked to contribute a bylined article to the Daily Business Buzz of the Nova Scotia Business Journal.  The Toronto Globe and Mail also advised its readers of our book. So expect some nail-biting from Canada to Florida during the month of October as meteorologists monitor Atlantic storm activity.

Residents Affected by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike to Benefit from FEMA Housing Assistance

October 1st, 2008
FEMA and HUD promise housing assistance

FEMA and HUD promise housing assistance

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has joined with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to announce a housing assistance program for residents affected by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. For more information about this program, click here to see the FEMA press release. The program appears to have much in common with FEMA’s Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program that was in effect during the 9/11 disaster, although it differs in some key respects to the assistance offered in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Here are two tips from the experience of 9/11:

1. As I recommended in Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), always use a Certificate of Mailing for any correspondence with your insurance company or any relief agency. This is different from sending a letter via registered or certified mail in which the recipient must sign to acknowledge receipt of the letter or package. With a Certificate of Mailing, the recipient’s signature is unnecessary; it is the post office that provides certification of the date and time of the mailing. Why is this distinction important? Consider what happened in the aftermath of 9/11 to Lower Manhattan residents who were directed to mail their applications for the FEMA Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program to a designated post office box address for processing. Applications were not accepted through other channels. Weeks and months passed and residents wondered what had happened with their applications. As it turns out, FEMA had not paid the rent on its post office box. If the post office would have returned the undeliverable applications to the senders, the problem could have been detected earlier. But one error compounded another and the post office staff simply piled up the undeliverable applications in a back room. The Certificate of Mailing would have proved that the applicants met their deadlines irrespective of the problems on the recipient’s end, that is one of the reasons that I recommend its use. By the way, the book incorrectly states that the cost of the Certificate of Mailing is $0.60. It was $0.60 at the time I submitted the manuscript for the book, but it has since risen to $1.10, which is still a good value.

2. The information that FEMA and HUD have released indicates that benefits will be paid three months at a time. If they will process the benefits for this program as they did for the Mortgage and Rental Assistance Program, they will electronically deposit the funds in the recipient’s bank account. Given the economic difficulties and credit pressure, it is very likely that there are applicants in the Gulf Coast who may have judgments against them. In such a case, it would be better to set up a separate account for receipt of the electronic funds from which the rent or mortgage expense could be paid. An attorney with the 9/11 Project of the New York Legal Aid Society had informed me of an instance in which one of her clients had commingled his FEMA housing assistance money with other funds in his account and the FEMA money was garnished by a creditor. If you may be facing this risk, it is better not to take a chance. Use a separate account.

Moral Hazard in Disaster Relief Programs

October 1st, 2008
Wall Street

Wall Street

The current debate over the proposed legislation to authorize $700 billion for the U.S. Treasury to purchase non-performing mortgage assets raises a number of issues, including concerns about moral hazard risk. The draft legislation does not authorize the Secretary of the Treasury to oversee the recipient institutions from which the federal government would purchase these assets. Of course, banks could choose not to subject themselves to such oversight; they could simply refrain from participating in what is perceived as a bail out of Wall Street. But as the legislation stands right now, the Secretary of the Treasury would have no such authority, setting up a classic moral hazard risk. It is analogous to the federal government’s programs for disaster relief, which provide aid after the disaster has struck, but such aid is not contingent on land-use regulation or financed with risk-based premiums. As a result, construction in areas prone to major natural disasters has dramatically outpaced construction in safer areas. The management of risk is, in essence, the management of moral hazard and our federal government fails on that score.

At the same time, mega bank mergers (Citibank announced its acquisition of Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase has done the same for Washington Mutual and Bank of America is to be the new owner of Merrill Lynch) means that we have more banking institutions deemed too big to fail.  The insurance industry, too, has exposure to non-performing mortgage assets in their investment portfolios. However, with more than 3,000 institutions insuring property-casualty risk in the United States, the industry has a lower concentration of risk as compared with commercial and investment banks. Let’s hope that Congress proceeds more carefully with the legislation proposed by Treasury.

Survey Reveals That Families Are At Risk

September 28th, 2008
Do you know where your kids are?

Do you know where your kids are?

The Mailman School of Public Health of Columbia University recently released the results of an annual study on disaster preparedness that it has been conducting since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To download and read the report, click here. The study didn’t reveal any major surprises: most Americans are not prepared for a major emergency and most parents are not aware of the disaster plans their children’s schools have in place. The survey question I found most interesting was “Which statement best characterizes what you think might happen in a disaster situation?” 57% of respondents answered that “You will work on your own to protect yourself and your family” and 13% answered “You will wait for help to arrive”. If 57% of the population accepts that you must work on your own to protect yourself and your family, then you would expect that at least 57% of the respondents would indicate that they have disaster plans in place for their families, but the number was far lower than that. It appears that people know what they have to do, but they are not all doing it. As small business owners, we can change this. Encourage your employees to put in place disaster plans for their families using the same methodology we are using for our small businesses. This will not only help your employees and their families, but it will help to secure their “buy-in” for your business disaster plan, when everyone realizes the benefits.

Meet Me at the Forbes Small Business Exchange

September 26th, 2008
Forbes Small Business Exchange

Forbes Small Business Exchange

I have joined the Small Business Exchange of Forbes.com as the expert on small business disaster preparedness and recovery, where I am available to answer questions from members of the Exchange. I have just answered my first three questions and look forward to helping as many small business owners as I can. The Small Business Exchange is an online community for small businesses and I have found it to be a valuable tool for meeting potential customers and sharing expertise. I am an enthusiatic reader of Forbes and a long-term subscriber to the magazine, so I hope you will join me. Other members of the Exchange offer expertise on bankruptcy issues, credit card systems, financial strategies and other important needs for small businesses. Of course, you can also communicate with me through this blog as well!

Forum on the New Madrid Seismic Zone

September 25th, 2008

My former employer, Swiss Re, hosted a forum to discuss the issues around the New Madrid Seismic Zone. This area in the Midwest includes Memphis and St. Louis and while the probability of a major New Madrid earthquake is less than that for one in the San Andreas Fault zone, the catastrophic consequences in the Midwest are potentially greater than those of California. This is, in part, because of the economic dependence on transportation systems, power infrastructure and other critical facilities in that area. Experts believe that the loss potential of a major earthquake at New Madrid could range from $80 billion to $200 billion in damages. Indeed, over a period of just under two months in 1811 – 1812, three major earthquakes of a 7.7 magnitude occurred in New Madrid. This was the last major seismic activity in that area and it was second in severity only to the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco.  By comparison, the Northridge Earthquake measured 6.7 on the Richter scale.  Isn’t it extraordinary to think that an earthquake in the Midwest, an area we don’t typically associate with that peril, exceeded the strongest severity U.S. earthquake in our lifetime?

One of the speakers at the Forum was Chris Cramer, PhD and Research Associate Professor at the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, who made a number of interesting observations concerning the differences between New Madrid and San Andreas. It is more difficult to collect data from the New Madrid Zone, as the surface fault lines are not as readily available to study as they are in California. Dr. Erdem Karaca of Swiss Re added that, the challenges in collecting complete data notwithstanding, it is known that the soils of the Midwest are very different from those of California, with a greater risk of damage due to liquification, which often results in building settlement damages. Another concern raised by Mr. Michael Griffin, PE, a structural engineer with the CCS Group Inc., is that building construction methodology and local building codes are less robust, with respect to earthquake safety, than in California. In California, many of the more vulnerable buildings have been replaced with structures that are more resilient to seismic shifts.

Moreover, earthquakes originating in the Midwest may travel farther than would be possible in California, owing to the fact that the earth’s crust is older and more stable in the New Madrid Zone. For example, an earthquake with an intensity of 7.0 in San Francisco may cover 12,000 square miles, while the same earthquake intensity at New Madrid may cover 203,000 square miles. This larger zone impact brings additional challenges to coordination among emergency responders. In his presentation to the Forum, Jim Wilkinson, Executive Director of Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium, noted that the New Madrid Seismic Zone covers four FEMA zones, eight states and nine bordering states. The Central United States Earthquake Consortium was formed to help coordinate various governmental and private activities related to the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Mr. Andy Castaldi, Senior Vice President of Swiss Re and Head of Cat Perils in the Americas, moderated the Forum. In the near future, I will invite an expert to contribute a guest blog on earthquake risks for the benefit of our small businesses in the Midwest.

Leveraging Strength for Ike Evacuees Returning to Galveston

September 24th, 2008
Welcome home

Welcome Home

Evacuees returning home to Galveston are just now seeing the devastation inflicted on their homes and businesses by Hurricane Ike. Undoubtedly, they are feeling overwhelmed by the recovery process ahead of them. Having been through a version of that process myself, I can offer words of hope and advice.

First, leverage the strength of your insurance company. Let me explain how that can work in your favor. I returned home to my apartment in the shadow of what used to be the World Trade Center after our neighborhood was closed and evacuated on 9-11-01. For several months I had been homeless as our neighborhood remained under the control of the National Guard, although during that time period, I was once allowed to return home for a half-hour, with a Guardman, to retrieve some personal effects. The Guardsman took neighbors into apartment buildings (once we produced our New York driver’s licenses proving our residency) in groups of five or six. When I came back for good, I contacted an environmental remediation company to remove the soot, ash and other contaminants from my home and my office. The project manager with whom I had spoken said that it would be “months” before he could send a staff person to my property to give me an estimate to perform the work, let alone actually start the work.

I asked if someone could come in the evening, after business hours. The answer was no. I asked about early mornings, before business hours, or on the weekend. The answer was no and no again. With relatively few companies certified to do this work and many thousands of people demanding these services, the queue was very long. And yet this was the critical task before I could safely return home. So I called my insurance company. I hoped that this would be the only major disaster that I would ever have to work through and I would never have to deal with an environmental remediation company again. But insurance companies deal with environmental remediation companies all of the time. They approve payment for these services for their policyholders. They can choose remediation companies as their preferred vendors for certain types of work. So the insurance company had the leverage that I did not.

I explained to the person who answered my insurance company’s CAT line (“CAT” is insurance speak for “catastrophe”) my situation and reminded her that the longer it would take to remediate my home, the longer I could remain in a hotel, which expense was covered by my homeowner’s insurance. She got the point. A few minutes after we concluded our conversation, my cell phone rang. It was the project manager from the environmental remediation company, the same man with whom I had spoken only minutes ago. He advised me to be at my apartment at 7:00 a.m. the next morning so that I could let his team in. At the time I was displaced, I was staying in Jersey City across the Hudson River from Manhattan. Most people commute to Lower Manhattan from Jersey City by the PATH train, but with the World Trade Center PATH train terminus destroyed, we had to take ferry routes that were put in place on an emergency basis. The routes and timetables changed from day to day, as the recovery was underway, so it could take some time to get from where I was staying to my home. Obviously, the project manager didn’t want to waste a trip to my apartment if I could not be there. “Oh,” I said, “you can have someone visit and give me an estimate tomorrow morning?” No, he answered, the insurance company called him on my behalf and he would have a team there to do the cleaning at 7:00 the very next morning.

Some of my neighbors spent months dealing with long waits and negotiating their spot in the queue. This is why you pay for insurance, so get full value for it. By the way, I recommended this tip to someone whose mother lived in Florida through the 2004 hurricane season when she was in the same situation (months and months to get an estimate before any work could be done). He reported that it worked for her as well. Another lesson I learned from 9-11 is that vendors often present the worst-case scenario in terms of service restoration because they would rather err on the side of caution. Then, of course, they look like heroes if they can restore service in a more reasonable time frame. I remember contacting my telecommunications provider to find out when landline service would be restored and was told that it could take months. It was back within two weeks. Bear this in mind when vendors are giving you bad news and don’t let it discourage you.

By the way, the photograph you see here is of the lobby of my apartment building upon our return home when civil authorities re-opened our building. It was quite an experience to return home after an absence to see what had happened to our neighborhood. This is undoubtedly the stress that residents in the footprint of Hurricane Ike are now experiencing.

Going for the Greens in Orlando

September 20th, 2008
Go for it! Going for the greens with NAWBO at Walt Disney World

Go for it! Going for the greens with NAWBO at Walt Disney World

Yesterday, I had the privilege to participate in the “Go for the Greens” conference held at the Disney Boardwalk Hotel on the Walt Disney Resort property. The conference was hosted by the National Association of Women Business Owners, the Women’s Business Enterprise National Council, UPS and Walt Disney World. Diane Sears, the Co-Chair of the Steering Committee, was kind enough to invite me to speak. Participants were welcomed to the program with an ambitious agenda: “This conference is all about access. It’s about giving women business owners access to people who can help them grow their businesses at a faster rate, and giving corporate, government and nonprofit leaders access to terrific, women-owned businesses….The conference’s programming is designed at a 303 level, rather than 101, to show our respect for your experience. We know you’re not interested in training wheels. You want to rev up your economic engine and take off.”

I joined Molly Gimmel, a fellow NAWBO member and CEO of Design to Delivery Inc., in leading a breakout educational session “What Your Competitors Don’t Know About Contracting”. One of the key messages to differentiate yourself from the competition is to think about your the reliability and resilience of your business. Many Fortune-500 companies and government purchasing agencies, as part of their disaster preparedness efforts, are evaluating the resilience of their supply chains. As part of their vendor due diligence, they are examining the disaster preparedness of prospective suppliers. Show the procurement officer that you have a credible disaster plan in place to help you meet your deliverables in the event of an unexpected disruption and you are better positioned to win the business. This was a particularly appropriate topic to discuss at this time, as September is National Disaster Preparedness Month. Preparing your business is part of growing your company and taking it to the next level.

In addition to leading this breakout educational session, I participated in a number of matchmaker events with corporate procurement executives. But most important of all, “Go for the Greens” afforded me the chance to connect with old friends while enjoying the hospitality as a guest of Disney.

Confirmation on FEMA Hotels for Those Displaced by Ike

September 17th, 2008

In my blog entry on Sunday, I reported that I had spent some time as a guest on a live broadcast of KTRH News Radio in Houston dealing with some of the urgent needs raised by their listening audience in response to Hurricane Ike. Chief among these was the need for a list of the FEMA hotels for the transitional housing program. Listeners in the Houston audience called in to this radio program, one after the other, to report that they could not obtain information from FEMA about which hotels were participating in the program so that they could attend to their urgent needs for shelter. The anchor of the news program reported that FEMA had not updated its website for Texas since Hurricane Dolly. I found the list of FEMA hotels in Texas for the Gustav evacuees and was assured that this list was the same for those displaced by Ike. I posted the link to this list on my blog on Sunday, September 14 and made it available to the news director of KTRH so he could convey the information to his listeners who did not have Internet connections.

Three days later, today at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, September 17, the Associated Press reported that FEMA had finally published the list of participating hotels for the transitional shelter program. It is, indeed the same list I had posted on this blog on Sunday and made available to the listeners of KTRH when I was a guest on their program.

What Happens to Insurance Companies in a Financial Crisis?

September 17th, 2008
New York Stock Exchange, A Photo I Took Not Far From My Office

New York Stock Exchange, A Photo I Took Not Far From My Office

On Monday, I was in the Wall Street area where the mood was decidedly somber. I was standing at one of the street food vendors buying lunch when I saw CNBC anchor Dylan Ratigan leaving the New York Stock Exchange and entering the Wall Street subway station. CNBC interrupted its ordinary broadcast that evening to provide programs with experts discussing the concerns about the safety and soundness of our Wall Street institutions with specific reference to Lehman Brothers and AIG. Later that evening, one of the cable television networks (NOT CNBC) featured a guest commentator urging that the federal government “rescue” AIG because it is the world’s largest insurance company and policyholders must be paid. For people in the Gulf Coast and the Mid West recovering from Hurricanes Ike and Gustav and the associated flooding, the failure of an insurance company at this time is the last event they want to contemplate. Let’s try to separate the facts from the cable television theatrics to examine what the real issues are.

When insurance companies write business, they collect premiums and set aside required reserves to cover future losses. That is the first layer of protection for the policyholders: those reserves are set aside for their benefit. They are not available to retire other financial obligations of the company. Second, states have policyholder guarantee funds for life insurance companies to provide an additional level of security in the event of insolvency. Third, insurance companies pay premiums for reinsurance coverage, which provides an additional layer of capital available to pay claims. In the event that an insurance company becomes insolvent, the reinsurance company is not relieved of its obligation to pay the claims to the ultimate beneficiaries – the policyholders. What would happen in such an event is that the state insurance commissioner would establish a trust and appoint a trustee to oversee the orderly liquidation of the insurance company. The reinsurance company, or companies, as insurers often buy layers of capital protection from multiple sources, would pay their required claims into the trust in lieu of to the insurer and the trust would pay the policyholders. Finally, the insurance commissioner would likely to try arrange the sale of the insurance company’s operations to a financially sound insurance company which would then assume all of the liabilities for the policyholders it would acquire (along with the associated reserves).

With specific reference to AIG (American International Group), it has many subsidiaries operating in many different financial sectors, some of which are insurance companies. But the assets and the liabilities of these businesses are not fungible. The assets of its property-casualty insurance companies, for example, are held separately from certain of its other businesses that have exposures to the sub-prime mortgage market. More broadly, with respect to any corporate restructuring, there are different classes of constituents that have claims against a company should it go into bankruptcy: employees, creditors, suppliers and vendors, stockholders and, if the company is an insurance company, policyholders. In all cases, the policyholders’ claims are senior and superior to all others. They will be paid first. The cable television commentators I observed on television appeared to have confused the risks for the policyholders with those of the stockholders, bondholders and employees. They are certainly not the same. Nevertheless, the financial crisis underscores the importance of the advice we gave in the first (published in 2002) and second (published in 2008) editions of the book: consider the financial strength and claims paying ability when selecting an insurance company.