U.S. Senate Works Christmas Eve

December 27th, 2009
Coal In Your Stocking This Year?

Coal In Your Stocking from Our Santas in the Senate

The Senate worked late into the night to socialize one-sixth of the U.S. economy: the entire healthcare sector. No matter how you look at it, it is a no-win for small businesses. If you are satisfied with your current medical insurance, but the government deems your benefits “generous”, you will be hit with punitive taxes. If you are over age 65 and are covered by Medicare, your benefits may be adjusted by the government to rationalize the system.

And all of us will be paying for the cost-shifting into enlarged state Medicaid programs and pork-barrel politics played to buy the votes of senators reluctant to support this bill. Even worse, our political leaders had the moxie to demonize the insurance industry, even as this “reform” enriches the industry by delivering captive policyholders to them with no offsetting pressure on cost containment. We are still left with a patchwork of 50 state insurance systems and no national economies of scale. Small businesses will still be overpaying for insurance, while large corporations can escape the most onerous burdens with self-insurance or other captive schemes. Let’s see if the House shows any political courage after the New Year, but the signs are ominous.

Power Outage Delays New York Trains

December 23rd, 2009
Holiday Travel Woes

Holiday Travel Woes

This is the time of year when I miss Switzerland the most.  It is not just the beauty of Zurich, decorated with holiday lights for Christmas. It is the efficiency of the Swiss train system.  You can set your watch by the arrivals and departures of the trains. Today an electrical problem outside New York City stopped Amtrak train service for three hours, stranding thousands of holiday travelers. The good news is that during the outage trains en route to New York had on-board power for heat and lighting, which isn’t always the case when the route loses power. The disruption delayed service up and down the East Coast, including commuter traffic on New Jersey Transit, a local rail line.  I now expect such disruptions and plan for them as a routine matter. One tip for train travel, particularly if you take the train to Washington or Boston for business, as I often do: make sure your laptop is fully charged when you board. Keep it charged by choosing a window seat. Then if the power goes out, you have another three or so hours left on your battery.  I also pack snack food as the café car will always run out of food, and the choice isn’t particularly appetizing anyway. Finally, call for your ground transportation on your cell phone as you approach the station. There is generally limited parking space at Amtrak city stations and with long delays, you can’t plan for a timely arrival.

Forbes Boost Your Business Awards

December 22nd, 2009
Forbes Entrepreneur Editor Brett Nelson

Forbes Entrepreneur Editor Brett Nelson

Forbes hosted a reception at the Forbes Gallery to celebrate the winner of its “Boost Your Business” competition. The winner receives a $100,000 capital infusion, welcome to any start-up, but particularly in this environment where funding is scarce. Entrepreneur editor Brett Nelson cited the gloomy statistics released in the annual survey of members of the National Venture Capital Association. Most venture capitalists reported a decrease in seed and early-stage funding with fewer resources shifting to more established companies seeking follow-on funding to scale for growth. The study also found that among venture capitalists:

  • 87% expect that funds raised in 2010 will be on average smaller than in previous years.
  • 48% predict more foreign LPs investing in U.S. venture funds in the coming year.
  • 90% predict that the number of venture capital firms will decline over the next five years.
  • 72% expect the venture capital industry to contract between 1 percent and 30 percent.

Of course, the implications for the VC industry are particularly gloomy for the three to five year horizon when, having skipped a generation of early seed funding, there will be a cohort gap seeking follow-on funding in the future. It is sobering to consider the consequences for our economic growth with such short-sighted investments. Notwithstanding the tough funding environment, the evening was a celebration of entrepreneurship and thanks to Forbes for their hospitality.

Snow Disruptions

December 21st, 2009
Winter Storm

Winter Storm

A winter storm struck the East Coast this weekend, leaving up to two feet of snow, on what is traditionally the busiest shopping weekend of the holiday season. I hope your contingency plans included telecommuting for staff who could do so and e-commerce for your own shopping and for serving your home-bound customers. Airlines are rebooking passengers who were ticketed on canceled flights. According to flight logistics experts, the airlines need three days to rebook passengers and catch up for a single day of cancellations. A storm of this magnitude may require as many as five days. Of course, this bumps the displaced passengers against holiday travelers on one of the most congested travel times of the year. So from travel disruptions to lost sales, a snow storm can have major consequences for your business.

Buying the Best Insurance for Your Business

December 20th, 2009

New York TimesThe small business section of the New York Times published an article titled “Buying the Best Insurance for Your Business.” I was among the experts quoted in a piece focusing on business interruption insurance. Too often small business owners focus on property damage and overlook the need to protect against revenues lost when disaster strikes. The article reports that the owner of a beauty company whose business experience a fire learned this lesson the hard way. The article also provides helpful tips on purchasing general liability and workers compensation insurance.

Experts Forecast an Above-Average 2010 Hurricane Season

December 14th, 2009
On the Horizon

On the Horizon

Hurricane forecasters with Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project forecast an above-average Atlantic storm season for 2010. They anticipate 11 to 16 named storms, of which 6 to 8 to become hurricanes, with 3 to 5 to strengthen to major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4 and 5 in severity) reaching sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more. The hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, with peak exposures in the months of August and September. The Colorado State University team assigns a two-thirds probability of at least one major hurricane to make landfall, striking the U.S. coastline in 2010. For the U.S. East Coast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 40%.  The team derives its forecasts from meteorological data and revises it as conditions warrant. Neverthless, the message for small businesses is clear: while we thankfully escaped a major storm in the U.S. this year, we cannot become complacent.

Scotland Begins Flood Recovery Effort

December 13th, 2009

Severe floods struck parts of Scotland in September and again in late November and the recovery will take some time. With the affected area only recently declared safe for return, clean-up efforts have just begun. The Association of British Insurers estimates the damage to exceed £100 million. Businesses and homeowners fear that premium increases for the losses or higher deductibles will be passed on to them or that their coverage could be dropped entirely. The encouraging news is that insurers have agreed to continue to underwrite flood cover in areas where flood defenses exist or are planned for construction within the next five years. But uncertainty exists around “resilient repair” which goes beyond restoring the property to its pre-flood status and enhances its ability to withstand future flooding. Resilient repair efforts could include moving electrical circuits to higher levels or replacing carpets with hardwood flooring. The brokers’ trade association endorses resilient repair, but insurers reimburse policyholders’ investment in resilient repair by different means or not at all. It is best to seek guidance from the insurance carrier before incurring the expense. The National Flood Forum provides helpful information on flood property defenses.

I spoke with Michael Duncan of the Federation of Small Businesses, which is offering a £500,000 disaster recovery fund to finance the recovery of its members. Members in affected communities (Elgin, Aboyne, Oldmeldrium, Canoustie and Pitlochry) are eligible to apply for interest-free loans of up to £5,000 for businesses to finance their recovery and continuity efforts. The FSB has asked for forbearance for small businesses to meet their obligations under more flexible terms during this difficult time. If you wish to contribute to the UK Red Cross, here is the link.

Blindspots Explained

December 13th, 2009
Difficult to Manage

Difficult to Manage

I had occasion to hear the very thoughtful words of Kenneth Knight, the National Intelligence Officer for Warning. He oversees teams of analysts to brief the President to “avoid surprises”. He spoke about the challenge of overcoming cognitive bias, or seeing the world through the filter through which you have become accustomed. This is hard for anyone, but particularly for intelligence officers, to go against their own analytic frameworks that have served them well in the past. To try to compensate for this risk, that the view of the intelligence agencies leaves the country vulnerable to their own blindspots, he challenges his assumptions, but always know that he is working against the tyranny of time.

This insight is applicable to small businesses as well. I had the experience of working in New Orleans post-Katrina where hurricane recovery was understandably the top concern. But the more immediate threat to one small business served by the local Small Business Development Center was a fire. The proprietor had intended to back up his data in advance of June 1, the start of the new hurricane season, but time was not on his side. His facility burned to the ground before he could prepare for the hurricanes. Another example was shared with me by the SBDC in New Orleans of a commercial shrimp facility that had to discard $500,000 worth of their catch due to spoilage when a power outage disrupted their electrical supply. Even in the Gulf Coast, a fire or a power outage is the more statistically significant risk than a hurricane. Similarly for California, a seismically active area where, thankfully, there has not been a major earthquake. But every year, southern California experiences an outbreak of fires. Sometime we have to change our frame of reference to better perceive the more immediate threat – a challenge for small business owners and national intelligence authorities alike.

The Small Business Massacre

December 9th, 2009
Not Good News

Not Good News

David Goldman appeared on Larry Kudlow’s CNBC program to discuss the “massacre of small business”. Policymakers have belabored the point that small businesses have led job creation in all post-war economic recoveries. That is not the case now as job losses at small businesses exceed those of large ones. Goldman pointed out that the household survey, based on telephone interviews with a large sample of randomly chosen households, shows that 558,000 Americans lost their jobs in October, but large businesses reported a decline of only 190,000 jobs. So small businesses are disproportionately affected by the economic downturn, doubtless due to the contraction in commercial credit. Business lending is down 13% year on year and according to the recent report of the Federal Reserve Bank, most banks continue to “tighten lending standards”.  Small businesses are choked of credit as all lines, including home equity and credit cards, are tightened. Without access to capital, small businesses fail. Indeed, Moody’s reported that the global speculative default rate is at 12%, an all-time high since the Depression. The capital access disaster is exceeds all natural disasters in severity, owing to bad economic policy.

Fire Hazards

December 8th, 2009
Thankfully, It Wasn't Worse

Thankfully, It Wasn't Worse

In Prepare for the Worst, Plan for the Best: Disaster Preparedness and Recovery for Small Businesses (Wiley, second edition, 2008), I wrote about fire safety, including the importance of grounded electrical connections, maintaining a no-smoking policy at work and not leaving cooking appliances unattended, for example. Careful observation of safety procedures can significantly reduce your risk of fire at the workplace. Unfortunately, Credit Suisse learned this lesson the hard way when an employee left a space heater plugged in and on over the Thanksgiving holiday. The attached photograph shows the physical damage that resulted when an electrical fire started from the space heater. Thankfully, no one was hurt. Nevertheless, this is an important lesson in fire safety. Many small businesses become distracted by thinking of catastrophic risks specific to their geographic locale (hurricanes in the Gulf Coast states, earthquakes in California, etc.), but in fact, it is the everyday disasters, such as fire, that pose the greatest threat. Please take this opportunity to review your fire safety procedures to ensure that they are up to date and employees are compliant with them.